Token supply and unlock risk: how to assess them
You can assess token supply and unlock risk by reading official tokenomics and verifying the same supply and vesting data on a blockchain explorer.
Vahe HakobyanEditor-in-chief
Updated Oct 6, 20263 min readFact-checked
On this page
- Unlock schedules can be wrong, so verify supply on a blockchain explorer.
- FDV uses total or max supply, not just circulating supply.
- Set a reminder to recheck tokenomics and contract details.
Start with the project's materials, then move to public data. You want to see how many tokens can enter circulation and when.
What you need before you start
Begin on the project's official tokenomics page. It usually lists circulating supply, total supply, and next unlock dates. Write down each number and its date. Then cross-check on a blockchain explorer and an unlock tracker.
How to assess supply and unlock risk
Now compare the official numbers with public data. Look for dilution. Dilution is the share of supply that can still enter circulation.
- 1Compare circulating to totalSubtract circulating supply from total supply.
- 2Compare circulating to maxCompare circulating supply to max supply. Low supply can make FDV differ from market cap.
- 3Identify unlock recipientsRead who receives unlocked tokens: team, investors, treasury, or community.
- 4Weigh unlock size and volumeCompare the next unlock size with recent trading volume.
- 5Check cliffs and frequencyCheck for large one-time releases and frequent small releases.
- 6Verify contract controlsCheck the contract for minting or vesting changes.
What to do after you assess
After your review, save your notes. Record the contract address, supply numbers, unlock dates, and sources. Set a reminder to revisit the same sources.
Frequently asked questions
FDV estimates total token value by multiplying the current price by the total or max supply.
Official schedules come from the project's tokenomics page or documentation, and independent unlock trackers collect vesting data.
Open the contract on a blockchain explorer and look for mint, owner, or admin functions that can create tokens.
No, unlock calendars can be wrong, outdated, or based on old tokenomics, so verify the current contract on a blockchain explorer.
